从事故中学习:事故调查的社会因素及其制度安排

作为安全知识的重要来源之一,事故不但为人类带来了科学、技术、管理知识,同时也带来了具有隐性知识特征的操作技能知识。从知识的视角来分析并理性看待安全生产事故发生的不可避免性,是从事故中进行安全学习的前提。通过分析事故原因并将事故的经验教训知识化,有助于明晰从事故中学习的内容。事故中包含多个利益相互交错博弈且具有明显的"碎片化特质"的利益相关者。事故调查作为一个从负面后果探究发生原因的特殊学习过程,其质量在受到调查技术、调查方法等技术因素影响的同时,更与外界社会因素的影响息息相关,会受到诸多利害关系的掣肘,其有效性在很大程度上取决于法律和机构设置等相关制度安排。     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

高兹资本主义核电技术批判理论及其当代价值

高兹是法国当代左翼生态政治思想家,他以法国发展核电技术为例,从技术、经济、生态和安全方面对资本主义使用的核电技术进行了深刻的分析和批判。他指出核电技术是"资本的圈套",符合资本主义积累逻辑,是资本主义专制的政治选择,社会生态重建的基本前提是工具转换。高兹的核电批判理论为我们审视目前的能源发展战略提供了一种新的理论视野,他对节约能源以及采用新技术发展新型能源的思考,对建设生态文明具有重要的价值。     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故单危险源风险度量模型研究

本文研究了煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故危险源的分类,把危险源划分为人的不安全行为、机器设备不安全状态、环境不安全特征和管理缺陷四大类,并根据煤矿现场调查各类危险源的数据以及相应数学方法的特点,提出煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故人、机器设备(物)、环境、管理四类危险源的风险度量方法,在此基础上构建四类危险源的风险度量模型。研究表明,危险源的风险度量模型由风险发生的可能性、危险源重要度以及事故导致的损失构成;危险源风险发生的可能性,在具体应用中可以采用各类危险源的不可靠度、故障率等来衡量;危险源在事故中的重要度可以通过分析事故故障树种要素结构重要性获取。根据风险评价的结果,可以对危险源进行分级排序,从而为煤矿事故单危险源的控制提供依据。     

Establish a Glorious Century of Maintaining Life＇ s Dignity

现今的世界上,有许多人由于内战、贫困与饥饿、环境破坏等威胁,迫使他们的生命及尊严处于危险状态,也有大批人仍然饱受着人权侵害、种族歧视的痛苦。为和平、人权、人道的奋斗,绝不是低层爬到高山的顶峰就可以达到终点那样。重要的是要创建一股一代接一代、谁也阻挡不了的滔滔洪流,并日积月累地把它发展和扩大。这就是我们为了建设一个和平未来的不断挑战。     

Disposable waste,lands and bodies under Canada’s gendered nuclear colonialism

ABSTRACT

Nuclear colonialism, or the exploitation of Indigenous lands and peoples to sustain the nuclear fuel cycle from uranium mining and refining to nuclear energy and weapons production and the dumping of the resulting nuclear waste, occurs in many parts of the world and has generated considerable protest. This article focuses on a contemporary and ongoing case of nuclear colonialism in Canada: attempts to site two national deep geological repositories (DGRs) for nuclear waste on traditional First Nations land in Southwestern Ontario near the world’s largest operational nuclear power plant. Through histories of the rise of nuclear power and nuclear waste policy-making and their relationship to settler colonialism in Canada, as well as actions taken by the Saugeen Ojibway Nation (SON) and white settler anti-nuclear waste movements, the article explores how gender is at work in nuclear colonialism and anti-nuclear waste struggles. Gender is explored here in terms of the patriarchal nuclear imperative, the appropriation of Aboriginal land through undermining Aboriginal women’s status and the problematic relationship between First Nations and white settler women-led movements in resistance to nuclear waste burial from a feminist decolonial perspective     

东北亚安全格局的新变化与中国对策

2010年,东北亚安全格局发生了微妙的变化,包括日美安保同盟重新定位,＂天安＂号事件,延岼岛炮击,朝鲜半岛的紧张局势与韩国推迟收归军事指挥权,日本民主党政权回归现实主义的对美政策,朝鲜推进核聚变技术,中日撞船事件等。2011年3月的日本核泄露事故又为东北亚的局势增添了新的变数。美国不仅继续主导东北亚地区的安全事务,而且,仍在东北亚地区发挥着强大的政治、经济和军事等综合影响力。除了美国以外,其他东北亚地区各国也都依据自身经济和军事实力成为东北亚安全格局中的变量。面对复杂的东北亚安全格局,中国必须认识到本国的全局利益和长远利益。在反对美国舰队演习等问题上当谨慎行事,重视政治大局,维护东北亚的稳定和现状,树立和平发展,公益、道德、正义的国际形象,重视大国关系的协调与合作。今后能否理性对待这类问题,是对中国外交是否具有长远战略的一个重大考验。     

医疗责任保险发展阻滞的原因及对策分析

医疗责任保险作为转嫁医疗风险的重要手段之一,正逐步在我国各地试行,并且在构建和谐医患关系的进程中发挥了一定的作用。然而,调研结果显示,其推行结果不甚乐观。文章从分析医疗责任保险推行阻滞的原因入手,尝试提出相应的对策。